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Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Executive Summary: Following a strong performance in the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high in the first quarter. The S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index increased by 10.6% and 7.9%, respectively, while the...

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Q4 Market Review: The fourth quarter began with the stock market in a correction. By the close of October, the S&P 500 had experienced a 10.6% decline from its peak in July. Although the S&P 500 maintained a year-to-date increase of...

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Financial markets in Q3 2023 were volatile, with stocks and bonds posting negative returns. Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, surging energy prices, and an unexpected flood of new Treasury bond issuance due to the $2 trillion...

Monday, July 17, 2023

 Investors are ebullient that the Fed has orchestrated a soft landing, yet corporate profits have declined for three consecutive quarters, and the leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate a monetary policy acts with a lag.

Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Should Investors Sell in May and Go Away? We believe the economy is on the verge of recession, and the next leg of the Bear Market is imminentSummaryThe major stock market averages were mixed in March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100...

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Friday, March 10, 2023

Stocks have a poor risk-reward and offer a historically low equity risk premium. A 4.9% risk-free rate is great. In January, stocks rallied because many investors believed that inflation was defeated and the Fed was poised to...

Friday, January 27, 2023

Wall Street believes the Fed will engineer a "soft landing." Is it probable?SUMMARYStocks and bonds performed poorly in 2022 because the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to slow economic growth and fight inflation, which reached...

Friday, December 23, 2022

The S&P 500 rallied 17% higher over the past 8-weeks due to favorable seasonality and positive fund flows. We expect the bear market to resume when the year-end rally ends in January.SummaryThe S&P 500 rallied by more than 17% from its...

Monday, October 31, 2022

The Fed's mistakes created the worst year for balanced investors since the Great Depression. Is the worst over?SummaryHistorically, the 60/40 blend of stocks and bonds (our benchmark) has reduced portfolio risk and maintained most of...

Monday, September 26, 2022

Don't Fight the FED!SUMMARYAfter a sharp summer rally, the bear market resumed in mid-August. Stocks declined as inflation remained elevated, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated, "While higher interest rates, slower growth, and...