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The Manley Macro Memo
April 24, 2026Executive Summary:After a strong 2025, stocks finished the first quarter lower as the conflict with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered an 84% spike in oil prices and a sharp risk‑off move. In...
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Executive Summary: A resilient economy, strong corporate profits, and the Fed’s three additional interest rate cuts drove the S&P 500 to an all-time high in the fourth quarter. In this risk-on environment, the S&P 500 advanced 2.7% in...
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The Manley Macro Memo
We believe there is significant economic uncertainty driven by several factors. The nation’s heavy debt load and an unprecedented peacetime budget deficit have heightened long-term fiscal risks. Recent tariff hikes represent a record-breaki
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We believe stocks currently offer a poor risk-reward profile because they are overbought, overvalued, and exhibiting weak market breadth. Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs, conflicts between the Administration and the Fed, and overl
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The Manley Macro Memo
We believe that stocks are in a bear market and offer a poor risk-reward because they are overvalued, there is significant economic uncertainty, and the estimated 10% earnings growth this year seems unrealistic. Over the next few months, we
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The Manley Macro Memo
Executive Summary: Equity markets had a mixed performance in Q4 2024. The S&P 500 rose 2.5%, but the equal-weight S&P 500 and S&P 600 Small-cap indexes fell by 1.9% and 0.5%. Foreign markets also struggled, with the MSCI EAFE...
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Executive Summary: After a sharp 9.7% decline in early August, the equity rally continued during the third quarter, and the S&P 500 increased by 5.5%. After a weak first half of 2024, the broader market performed well in Q3, as the...
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Executive Summary: The stock market was mixed during the second quarter. The S&P 500 increased by 3.9% during Q2, while the equal-weight S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 declined by 3.0% and 3.6%, respectively. Also, the Russell 1000...
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The Manley Macro Memo
Executive Summary: Following a strong performance in the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high in the first quarter. The S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index increased by 10.6% and 7.9%, respectively, while the...
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The Manley Macro Memo
Q4 Market Review: The fourth quarter began with the stock market in a correction. By the close of October, the S&P 500 had experienced a 10.6% decline from its peak in July. Although the S&P 500 maintained a year-to-date increase of...
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The Manley Macro Memo
Financial markets in Q3 2023 were volatile, with stocks and bonds posting negative returns. Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, surging energy prices, and an unexpected flood of new Treasury bond issuance due to the $2 trillion...
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Investors are ebullient that the Fed has orchestrated a soft landing, yet corporate profits have declined for three consecutive quarters, and the leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate a monetary policy acts with a lag.
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Should Investors Sell in May and Go Away? We believe the economy is on the verge of recession, and the next leg of the Bear Market is imminentSummaryThe major stock market averages were mixed in March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100...
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Stocks have a poor risk-reward and offer a historically low equity risk premium. A 4.9% risk-free rate is great. In January, stocks rallied because many investors believed that inflation was defeated and the Fed was poised to...
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Wall Street believes the Fed will engineer a "soft landing." Is it probable?SUMMARYStocks and bonds performed poorly in 2022 because the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to slow economic growth and fight inflation, which reached...
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The S&P 500 rallied 17% higher over the past 8-weeks due to favorable seasonality and positive fund flows. We expect the bear market to resume when the year-end rally ends in January.SummaryThe S&P 500 rallied by more than 17% from its...
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The Fed's mistakes created the worst year for balanced investors since the Great Depression. Is the worst over?SummaryHistorically, the 60/40 blend of stocks and bonds (our benchmark) has reduced portfolio risk and maintained most of...
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Don't Fight the FED!SUMMARYAfter a sharp summer rally, the bear market resumed in mid-August. Stocks declined as inflation remained elevated, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated, "While higher interest rates, slower growth, and...
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