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The Manley Macro Memo
Investors are ebullient that the Fed has orchestrated a soft landing, yet corporate profits have declined for three consecutive quarters, and the leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate a monetary policy acts with a lag.
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Should Investors Sell in May and Go Away? We believe the economy is on the verge of recession, and the next leg of the Bear Market is imminentSummaryThe major stock market averages were mixed in March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100...
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Stocks have a poor risk-reward and offer a historically low equity risk premium. A 4.9% risk-free rate is great. In January, stocks rallied because many investors believed that inflation was defeated and the Fed was poised to...
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Wall Street believes the Fed will engineer a "soft landing." Is it probable?SUMMARYStocks and bonds performed poorly in 2022 because the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to slow economic growth and fight inflation, which reached...
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The S&P 500 rallied 17% higher over the past 8-weeks due to favorable seasonality and positive fund flows. We expect the bear market to resume when the year-end rally ends in January.SummaryThe S&P 500 rallied by more than 17% from its...
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The Manley Macro Memo
The Fed's mistakes created the worst year for balanced investors since the Great Depression. Is the worst over?SummaryHistorically, the 60/40 blend of stocks and bonds (our benchmark) has reduced portfolio risk and maintained most of...
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Don't Fight the FED!SUMMARYAfter a sharp summer rally, the bear market resumed in mid-August. Stocks declined as inflation remained elevated, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated, "While higher interest rates, slower growth, and...
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